My Apple Tablet Predictions
A couple weeks ago I lambasted the tech blogging press for postulating a litany of crackpot theories on the strategies behind several CES reveals. With Vegas now behind us, all attention is, as predicted, pointed squarely at Apple's upcoming January 27th product announcement. These predictions are no-less scattershot than the drivel that poured out of CES.
So, feeling as if I have to put my money where my mouth is, I've decided to take a stab at sifting through all of the rumors to make my own concrete predictions about what will happen next week. Yes, I'm absolutely doing this for the hope of screaming "told you so!"
Without further ado...
The Basics
Let's just nail these down: 10.1" LED LCD display with an oleophobic capacitive touch screen, similar plastics to the iPhone, Cocoa Touch OS—reminiscent of the iPhone OS with an icon "launcher," WiFi and 3G built in, 12-ish hours of use on a charge (but no removable battery), two USB ports, headphone jack, volume controls and one big button.
Also: Built-in iSight, Safari, Mail.app, iCal, syncs with iTunes, very, very thin and weighs about 2 lbs. Done.
The Name: iPad
Hands down, iPad.
I work in advertising. Branding is everything. Apple gets this better than probably any consumer electronics manufacturer. When they shifted from "PowerBook" and "iBook," to "Mac Book" and "Mac Book Pro", I, like many Apple aficionados, felt as if the entire marketing department had fallen down the stupid tree and hit every branch. But what Apple was doing was genius—consumers need simple. Mac Book says it all—It's a Mac Notebook. Just like iMac and Mac Pro, it's stupidly simple. iPhone, iLife, iWork... all of these names are short, monosyllabic terms that convey the purpose of the device in the most basic terms possible. Yes, iPod is the odd man out, but the brevity argument still holds true.
Why not iTablet? Too long. Why not iSlate? It sounds heavy, burdensome and like something stone-age men would carve into with rocks. It's iPad all the way, even if this will undoubtedly cause problems distinguishing whether you're talking about your tablet or music player in south Boston.
The Core Idea: Print is Dead
The iMac wasn't just a multi-colored mac, it was an idea about how to make a paradigm shift in the way consumers see personal computers. The iPod wasn't just a hard disk jukebox—those already existed—it was a vision about how to change the way people purchased and listened to music. The iPhone wasn't about building a smartphone, it was a vision for the future of mobile communication.
Similarly, the iSlate/iPad/iTablet isn't going to just be a big, flattened iTouch. It's going to have a core purpose—a vision on how it revolutionizes a part of life into the digital hub. That core idea is going to be print.
Anything printed: Magazines, textbooks, comic books, letters, photos, notebooks, paper. This is the target that Apple wants to replace with their new technology. Yes, because it'll almost certainly run a derivative of the iPhone OS (at the very least Cocoa Touch), it will play games and run iPhone style apps. The bulk of the media event, however, is going to be about a new digital print SDK, for developing formerly-printed media in the digital space. A barrage of major publication types are going to be announced as well—expect Marvel comics, The New York Times, Sports Illustrated and a major book publisher to all make appearances on stage.
Wireless Carrier: AT&T and Verizon
This is so obvious it hurts. There have been numerous leaks about tablet prototypes containing a Qualcomm CDMA chip, destining it to Verizon in the US. At the same time, there is no way in hell Apple is going to release a device that requires its nearly 10 million strong domestic iPhone installed base to sign up for a second wireless carrier. Sure, there's a Qualcomm chip, and you'll be able to get it for Verizon. You'll also be able to get it for AT&T with a GSM radio, too. Maybe even T-Mobile.
The first time around, with the iPhone, carriers were taking a risk letting Apple set all the rules for a device. Verizon balked, AT&T said yes, but only with a guarantee of exclusivity and with a lot of restrictions (like third-party software development) that Apple has whittled down over time. This time around, nobody is going to question Apple's success, which means no exclusivity deals—if you want it, you're going to play by Apple's rules, and Apple wants as many potential subscribers as possible.
Price Point: $599 subsidized, $999 without a contract
We've heard a wide swath of rumors about the price point of the device, but they all largely fall into the $600-$1000 range. Why? Let's do some math.
A basic 16GB iPhone 3GS costs $599 without a contract. With a contract, it's $199. The difference is $400.
The high end cost estimate of the Apple Tablet, based on the rumors, is $1000. The low end seems to be $600. The difference is $400.
This is not a coincidence. There's an established precedent of how much subsidy the wireless providers will kick up to Apple for the two-year contract guarantee on an unlimited data plan. This case is closed.
Input Device: Still your hands, but in amazing new ways.
Steve Jobs hates the stylus. He's made it abundantly clear he thinks they are an antiquated way to handle input with a touch screen. And Apple is not a "design by comittee" organization—it's design by Steve, period. So there won't be a stylus. Sorry, stylus fans (all three of you).
However, what good is a "pad" if you can't write on it? Handwriting and print go hand-in-hand, so how is this going to work out? When these patent filings popped up it was clear what the answer was.
The iPad will tell you're trying to write when you ball up your fist as if you had a pen in it and lay it on the screen. True story. And why the hell not? Handwriting recognition has never been high enough resolution on a touch screen to really simulate a pen and paper, so why bother trying to recreate the precision of a pen? This solution, like multi-touch interactions, will not come naturally the first time you pick up the device, but users are going to grow to love it. Mark my words, virtual pen input is going to be as common as pinch-and-pull multi-touch in the coming years, and Apple is going to be the pioneer in about a week.
Also expect some wicked multi-touch shit with all the extra screen space, like spread your two open palms to the sides of the device to go back to the main menu, gestures for copy and paste, etc.
Target Audience: Colleges, Families
All of this stuff you are hearing about classrooms and families sharing the device is absolutely spot on. Apple is a consumer product manufacturer. They're not looking to make the world's best executive notebook and DayRunner, they're looking to crush the Kindle. Don't expect a lot of productivity applications—although I do expect a touch-enabled version of iWork to show up here for students and general home-based productivity. This isn't targeted for the workplace, it's aimed squarely at students, people sending emails from their couch, and for those long trips to the bathroom when you read the latest issue of Sports Illustrated.
Launch Date: Late March, early April (but probably sliding into late May/June for you, due to demand)
They're likely going to have this thing on shelves very, very soon. There are undoubtedly a lot of content deals to ink before the retail roll-out so it's not going to be available immediately, but they won't allow it to fester for long. To meet a near-term date, however, supplies are going to be limited and like any first-gen, completely-new device, it's going to have manufacturing problems that keep availability low until the supply lines can fully ramp up. This means early adopters (e.g., those who plop down their credit cards right after the presentation) will get them soon, but those who dally will be waiting, frustrated. This is okay, however, because you'll be able to find your geeky friend who has one and bug the shit out of them asking to use it.
One More Thing: Verizon iPhone
AT&T's iPhone exclusivity is up this year, and although they've made some desperate plays to squeeze a renewal of this deal out of Cupertino, there hasn't even been the slightest leak of evidence that effort is bearing fruit. Apple has saturated the user base of people who will tolerate switching to AT&T's busted network, and they know they can grow their market share by a ton just putting this thing on Verizon's shelves. Despite the fact that Verizon has made some pretty public marketing efforts bashing the iPhone, the deal is too sweet for both parties for any bad blood to remain, and with the undoubted negotiations that have been happening over the tablet, it only makes sense that they tied up this loose end in the process. Expect it in June or July, the same time the original device was announced.
Remember, you head it hear first.
