iPad Prediction Scorecard
Uh oh! Time for me to eat some crow. Let's see how I did.
Each category I'm going to rate on a 10 point scale, 10 being most accurate.
The Basics: 7.5pts
Oleophobic LCD (not OLED) display, iPhone-style OS, WiFi and 3G, Headphone jack, volume and a big button, all check.
iSight, apps, iTunes sync, very very thin and weighs about 2 lbs? Yes, I will take credit for that, thank you.
10.1" screen is close enough to 9.7" viewable in my opinion. Likewise the 12-hour prediction on battery life—10 is a similarly all-day claim that is sure to be disputed by every early adopter, so I'm giving myself 90% credit for these.
Plastics like an iPhone and the two USB ports are a total failure. So I'm going to say I was 75% right on this one and take partial credit.
The Name: 10pts
iPad! Nailed it! In your face!
The Core Idea: 5pts
We did, in fact, see a lot of publishers mentioned, but the "print is dead, long live print" mantra I predicted wasn't nearly the focus as I had predicted. They spent just as much time talking about games, movies and existing iTouch app compatibility as reading. However, the video makes a big deal about reading, so I'm giving myself half credit on this. Dispute if you want, haters.
Wireless Carrier: 2pts
Hmm, so no mention of Verizon, despite all the rumors, but also no specific mention of it being exclusive on AT&T, leaving the door open for future announcements once things get settled. My prediction? AT&T is getting a good-faith head start, here, but CDMA radios are not far behind. I would expect an announcement of soon-to-be available Verizon-ready iPads about the time the 3G units start shipping.
That said, this "micro SIM" shit seriously limits the ability to move around freely, even without the contract lock. Another postulation on my part: that AT&T pushed for the micro sim so that existing unlimited iPhone data customers couldn't just pop (or clone) their sim to their device. I wonder if it's even removable.
Input Device: 1pt
1 point for recognizing they would not provide a stylus. Absolutely nothing else since it doesn't do anything that an iTouch doesn't already do. So much for my "amazing new ways" prediction.
Disappointed, Apple. Very disappointed.
Target Audience: 7pts
A lot of family chat, and yes—touch enabled iWork... but where's the textbook emphasis? Too soon to tip your hand? Still. Partial credit at best. Le sigh.
Launch Date: 10pts.
Late March/early April is spot on. Yay!
One More Thing: 0 bonus points.
I guess AT&T still gets some love from Cupertino... but for how long?
TOTAL: 42.5/70 (60.7%)
So, last I checked, a 60% is a total FAIL in higher education terms, so it looks like I didn't do so hot (although I'll be revisiting this if/when we hear of a Verizon deal), but in the meantime it seems I have some crow to eat.
So, comments: who wants one, or does it just look like an iTouch run over with a steamroller? To 3G or not to 3G? These are the questions.
